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White Paper

Evaluation of Probabilistic Electricity Demand Forecasts

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Probabilistic Electricity Demand Forecasts

Which Metric Is Best?

With behind-the-meter renewables, climate change, and the rise of EVs, probabilistic demand forecasts are gaining popularity.

In this white paper, see how to review probabilistic forecasts and assess their reliability. We explore four key metrics: the Probability Integral Transform (PIT), Chi-square test, Pinball loss function, and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS).

About the White Paper

This paper explores and evaluates four metrics employed in assessing probabilistic load forecasts in the energy industry.

Through a comprehensive case study analyzing probabilistic forecasts by the Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) and Yes Energy Demand Forecasts, the paper demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of each metric.

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