Yes Energy and MetraWeather Deliver a More Precise Forecast

Customer

Customer Transpower is both a national grid owner and system operator in New Zealand. Since 1994, it's been a state-owned enterprise.

Background

Background To deal with the challenges of extreme weather and fluctuating energy consumption, Transpower implemented Yes Energy Demand Forecasts in 2022.

Results

Results To see the effectiveness of this solution, our team looked at January 22, 2024, a day when operational demand hit a new record.

Project Information

The Australian summer of 2023-24 saw elevated electricity demand due to the combination of high dry bulb air temperatures (i.e. air temperature) and high dew point temperatures, particularly for Brisbane and Sydney. The minimum temperature in Brisbane failed to drop below 20° C between January 1 and March 15, due in large part to elevated moisture levels.

Our Solutions

MetraWeather

MetraWeather-powered Yes Energy Demand Forecasts are available in the Philippines, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand. Based in New Zealand, the MetService team of world-class meteorologists and technologists is the foundation of its expertise and research.

Yes Energy Demand Forecasts

Yes Energy Demand Forecasts feed comprehensive weather variables and calendar information to proprietary algorithms. Together, our solution is an advanced regression model using detailed demand and weather observation history and incorporating the latest near-term data.

A Look at Queensland on January 22, 2024

This proved a record day with operational demand peaking at 11,005 MW at 17:00, which was 9.28% higher than the previous record of 10,070 MW set in March 2023. The dew point reached 25.7° C on this day versus 25° C in the March 2023 record.

The higher demand on January 22 relative to the average comparable days reveals that dew point is a strong driver for power consumption and that peak power consumption in Queensland is growing.

Comparable Days Tool

This shows the demand on January 22 next to an average of comparable days. These days have been selected using our Comparable Days Tool, which contrasts days based on weather conditions, time of the year, and day of the week.

Peak demand that day was about 1.8 GW higher than average comparable days. Humidity reduces cooling efficiency, and increased air-conditioning usage is the key driver for demand flex on this day.

Conclusion

On a record-breaking high-demand day in Queensland, the Yes Energy forecast outperformed other forecasts by projecting the shape and peak more accurately—closing the gap by hundreds of megawatts.

In January 2024, Queensland’s operational demand reached a record 11,005 MW— exceeding all forecasts. While traditional load forecasts underpredicted demand, the MetraWeather-powered Yes Energy Demand Forecast (10,634 MW) was significantly closer than the AEMO forecast (10,251 MW), reducing forecast error by 383 MW. This performance highlights how integrating advanced meteorological inputs and Yes Energy’s demand modeling improves forecast accuracy and shape prediction, helping energy planners anticipate extreme weather-driven load behavior.

“The relationships between weather and electricity consumption are rapidly changing. To deal with these challenges, Transpower implemented the MetService-powered Yes Energy load forecast in 2022. The forecast is clearly performing better than the previous load forecast for all forecast horizons, across all regions. In addition, both the teams at Yes Energy and MetService are quick to answer any forecast-related questions—they really have become part of the team.”

David Katz,Former Market and Security of Supply Manager at Transpower